Post by GordonG on Feb 11, 2019 23:37:03 GMT -5
The following is a summary of the challenges facing the Giants:
1. For me the number 1A priority is upgrading the offensive line. At a minimum, the Giants need a RT. At a maximum the Center and RG positions need upgrading. How the Giants approach these three positions in the off season will tell us a great deal about how they feel about Jamon Brown, Jon Halapio, Spencer Pulley and Evan Brown. I suspect that as long as Halapio recovers well from his surgery, they will stick with him as the starter. My take on Jamon Brown is that he makes a good back up. Thus I am hoping that they will upgrade the RG and RT positions.
2. IMO the 1B priority is upgrading the LB corp at least at one of the interior linebackers and the edge defender opposite Vernon.
3. Sadly we have a 1C priority in upgrading the CB positions. The big question in my mind is what happened to Janoris Jenkins. Given Jenkins 2018 performance along with the performance of the other CBs on the roster, a very reasonable argument can be made that the Giants do not have a NFL starting CB on the roster.
4. If the Giants do not sign Landon Collins (he is an UFA) then the Giants do not have an NFL starting SS and FS on the roster. I continue to believe that Collins would be an excellent SS if he is paired with a solid FS.
5. Of course efforts will be made to upgrade the roster in general.
6. Clearly a successor to Eli is required. I strongly suspect that the priorities listed above will take at least one additional off season. Therefore I am not expecting Gettleman to spend a 1st round draft choice on a QB. Drafting a QB in the second round is IMO unlikely but not inconceivable.
Over the past 20 years I have observed a continual improved understanding of the CAP by fans in general. Therefore I want to focus on how the numbers at Spotstrac and Ovethecap can be misleading. When looking at their numbers, we need to remember that only 51 salaries apply to the CAP up till when the final 53 man roster is set. Therefore the amount of dollars that a team has to have to sign their draft choices must be adjusted to take into consideration that all draft choices will be at or above the 51st lowest salaries. If the Giants do not trade any of their draft picks to move up or down in the draft their rookie draft pool is $10.9mm. The Giants have 10 draft picks. To get the true CAP impact, the 10 lowest paid players have to be subtracted from the $10.9mm (7x$495k + 3x$570k). Thus the actual impact of the draft pool for the Giants is 10.9mm - 5.2mm equalling 5.7mm.
In terms of individual contracts, it is important to focus on how much money is guaranteed and typically most large long term contracts are really three year contracts. At that point the team can cut the player or extend the contract in order to lower the player's CAP number. The big CAP bargain are within the first 5 years of a player's career and the biggest CAP hit is when a player with a large contract extending beyond 3 years is cut, has a career ending injury or is traded within the first three years of his contract.
Currently the Giants have approximately $33mm in CAP space. Landon Collins is the only UFA that represents a significant CAP hit and that CAP hit would not start until 2020. That is because his signing bonus would be averaged out over the length of the contract which would likely be 5 years. There are only three players that represent possible significant CAP savings. Eli, Jenkins and Vernon. The potential CAP savings associated with Eli is 17mm. I do not see the Giants cutting him. I doubt Eli will take a salary/bonus cut and I do not see him retiring. So the question becomes whether a contract extension can be worked out to include 2020 and 2021 even though it is likely that 2020 will be Eli's last year as a Giant.
Janoris Jenkins represents a possible 7.8mm CAP savings. However cutting or trading him would generate 7mm in 2020 dead money. The key question is why his level of play fell off so dramatically. It would not surprise me if the Giants cut him. Vernon represents an 11.5mm CAP savings and 8mm in 2020 dead money if he was traded or cut. PFF graded him as the 13th best edge defender in the NFL. If the Giants agree with that grade, then he is here to stay. He graded out much better as a pass rusher vs a run defender. I am thinking that is a result of him selling himself out on the pass rush due to virtually no other pass rush pressure coming from the front 7.
From a CAP point of view, it looks like 33-40mm is what the Giants have to work with this off season depending on the final status of Jenkins. The Giants currently have 77mm in estimated CAP space in 2020 with 30 players signed. An additional 5.6mm will be needed for bringing the roster up to 40 players which would include the 23 lowest paid players. Thus, they have about 71mm for 13 additional players or 5.4mm per player. That puts them in a position to be somewhat active in free agency. However, I believe that the upcoming draft is far more important than whatever the Giants do in free agency. A strong draft will propel the Giants into a playoff level team. A weak draft will set the team back for a number of years.
1. For me the number 1A priority is upgrading the offensive line. At a minimum, the Giants need a RT. At a maximum the Center and RG positions need upgrading. How the Giants approach these three positions in the off season will tell us a great deal about how they feel about Jamon Brown, Jon Halapio, Spencer Pulley and Evan Brown. I suspect that as long as Halapio recovers well from his surgery, they will stick with him as the starter. My take on Jamon Brown is that he makes a good back up. Thus I am hoping that they will upgrade the RG and RT positions.
2. IMO the 1B priority is upgrading the LB corp at least at one of the interior linebackers and the edge defender opposite Vernon.
3. Sadly we have a 1C priority in upgrading the CB positions. The big question in my mind is what happened to Janoris Jenkins. Given Jenkins 2018 performance along with the performance of the other CBs on the roster, a very reasonable argument can be made that the Giants do not have a NFL starting CB on the roster.
4. If the Giants do not sign Landon Collins (he is an UFA) then the Giants do not have an NFL starting SS and FS on the roster. I continue to believe that Collins would be an excellent SS if he is paired with a solid FS.
5. Of course efforts will be made to upgrade the roster in general.
6. Clearly a successor to Eli is required. I strongly suspect that the priorities listed above will take at least one additional off season. Therefore I am not expecting Gettleman to spend a 1st round draft choice on a QB. Drafting a QB in the second round is IMO unlikely but not inconceivable.
Over the past 20 years I have observed a continual improved understanding of the CAP by fans in general. Therefore I want to focus on how the numbers at Spotstrac and Ovethecap can be misleading. When looking at their numbers, we need to remember that only 51 salaries apply to the CAP up till when the final 53 man roster is set. Therefore the amount of dollars that a team has to have to sign their draft choices must be adjusted to take into consideration that all draft choices will be at or above the 51st lowest salaries. If the Giants do not trade any of their draft picks to move up or down in the draft their rookie draft pool is $10.9mm. The Giants have 10 draft picks. To get the true CAP impact, the 10 lowest paid players have to be subtracted from the $10.9mm (7x$495k + 3x$570k). Thus the actual impact of the draft pool for the Giants is 10.9mm - 5.2mm equalling 5.7mm.
In terms of individual contracts, it is important to focus on how much money is guaranteed and typically most large long term contracts are really three year contracts. At that point the team can cut the player or extend the contract in order to lower the player's CAP number. The big CAP bargain are within the first 5 years of a player's career and the biggest CAP hit is when a player with a large contract extending beyond 3 years is cut, has a career ending injury or is traded within the first three years of his contract.
Currently the Giants have approximately $33mm in CAP space. Landon Collins is the only UFA that represents a significant CAP hit and that CAP hit would not start until 2020. That is because his signing bonus would be averaged out over the length of the contract which would likely be 5 years. There are only three players that represent possible significant CAP savings. Eli, Jenkins and Vernon. The potential CAP savings associated with Eli is 17mm. I do not see the Giants cutting him. I doubt Eli will take a salary/bonus cut and I do not see him retiring. So the question becomes whether a contract extension can be worked out to include 2020 and 2021 even though it is likely that 2020 will be Eli's last year as a Giant.
Janoris Jenkins represents a possible 7.8mm CAP savings. However cutting or trading him would generate 7mm in 2020 dead money. The key question is why his level of play fell off so dramatically. It would not surprise me if the Giants cut him. Vernon represents an 11.5mm CAP savings and 8mm in 2020 dead money if he was traded or cut. PFF graded him as the 13th best edge defender in the NFL. If the Giants agree with that grade, then he is here to stay. He graded out much better as a pass rusher vs a run defender. I am thinking that is a result of him selling himself out on the pass rush due to virtually no other pass rush pressure coming from the front 7.
From a CAP point of view, it looks like 33-40mm is what the Giants have to work with this off season depending on the final status of Jenkins. The Giants currently have 77mm in estimated CAP space in 2020 with 30 players signed. An additional 5.6mm will be needed for bringing the roster up to 40 players which would include the 23 lowest paid players. Thus, they have about 71mm for 13 additional players or 5.4mm per player. That puts them in a position to be somewhat active in free agency. However, I believe that the upcoming draft is far more important than whatever the Giants do in free agency. A strong draft will propel the Giants into a playoff level team. A weak draft will set the team back for a number of years.
